© 2009 Vinny Ribas
At 11 PM last night, the weatherman on TV said that it was going to snow overnight, and Nashville should expect 1-2 inches. They warned that the roads would probably be a mess, so everyone should avoid any traveling if possible. If today had been a school day, every school in the state would have been closed by last night as a precaution.
I woke up this morning, prepared to shovel that 1-2 inches of snow and maybe even ice off of my back porch. Instead, what I saw around my house didn’t even amount to a minor dusting. I am sure that some parts of town received some snow, but for me it was pleasantly anti-climactical. After all, one reason I moved away from Connecticut was to get away from snow!
Even though the weather prediction turned out wrong, I am glad I was at least warned of the possibility so that I could be properly prepared. Everyone and every business needs to have some way of being warned of possible challenges on the horizon. Some people look to the news, while others count on the hearsay they pick up at the coffee shop. Some people consult their horoscope and others consult a fortuneteller.
The accuracy and reliability of what or who you look to for analyzing what will or may happen in the future is vital to your success. It’s not something to take lightly. Too much talk of impending doom can completely paralyze you. Too much ‘fairy dust and roses’ can keep you from being realistic and properly prepared for change. Incomplete, wrong or irrelevant information can have you preparing for the wrong thing. Guesswork can throw you too far off base to recover from. Hang around conservatives and you’ll get one point of view. Hang around liberals and you’ll get the complete opposite.
So, who should you turn to? Some of the sources I mentioned are definitely worth monitoring. But why not also turn to the people who are directly involved in or affected by your business? Your customers can tell you how the consumer climate is changing in your industry. Your vendors can tell you how business is and what the trends are. Your management team should be able to tell you how your employees are feeling and reacting to what is happening in their lives. And your own gut feeling should never be discounted. No one can have as much intuition as you do because you are right in the heart of it.
The key to using the people in your business as barometers is asking them questions and getting to know them on a personal and ongoing basis. You can’t just do this when a crisis arises. That is too late. Plus, they will only talk openly if they believe that you care about them personally. You can get glimpses into the future from the things they say and do when they are truly being themselves. For example, customer surveys can certainly reveal trends in their infancy, but asking questions when you meet your customers face-to-face can reveal the emotions and decision-making process that went in to checking each of the boxes on the survey form!
No one can completely predict the future. The masses were wrong about the impending Y2K disaster. Our government didn’t see the events of 9/11 coming. And the weatherman couldn’t tell me tell me what the weather would be like over the next 8 hours at my house. But you can be best prepared for change or challenge when you have ‘inside information’. And no one is more inside than the people affected directly by your business!
